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Evidence Observatory

Networking and referrals statistics

A real and serious research literature sits underneath a set of round numbers that are not in it.

3 reviews · 2 sources

The measurement problem here

The academic work on personal contacts and job finding is decades deep and reasonably robust. The figures people quote from it — 70%, 80%, 85% — are not, and in several cases the study invoked measured something quite different from what the claim asserts.

The common confusion is between how someone learned about a job and how the employer filled it. These are different questions with different answers, and a study of the first cannot support a claim about the second.

Referral claims have the same shape. There is strong evidence about how referred employees perform after being hired, and much weaker evidence about how much a referral changes an applicant's chance of being hired at all.